Lowrise Demand Surges Above 10-year GTA Average

Ontario’s HST rebate program helped push lowrise new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over the 10-year average for a second consecutive month in May, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).

However, the program hasn’t quite registered with condo sales.

“Much of the existing product is locked into legacy pricing with higher costs, and any new highrise projects are unlikely to be able to meet the ‘substantially completed’ requirement of the HST rebate program,” explains Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group.

In May, there were a total of 1,023 new home sales — up significantly from the record low recorded in 2025, but 57 per cent below the 10-year average. Historically, a typical May sees 2,353 new home sales in the GTA, based on the previous 10-year average.

Condominium apartments, including units in low, medium and highrise buildings, as well as stacked townhouses, accounted for 193 sales, 89 per cent below the 10-year average. In the single-family category, which includes townhomes, sales totalled 830, marking a significant year-over-year increase and sitting 26 per cent above the 10-year average.

Total new home inventory in the GTA dipped below the 20,000 mark for the third time in 24 months, totalling 18,763 units, including 13,138 condo units and 5,625 single-family dwellings. This represents 32 months of inventory based on average sales over the past 12 months. As sales increase, months of inventory are expected to decline.

“While new single-family home sales surpassed the 10-year average for a second straight month, they did slightly decrease from the sales levels we saw in April — the first month that the HST rebate program was introduced,” says BILD chief operating officer Justin Sherwood. “This decrease is largely due to potential new homebuyers still waiting on the sidelines for clarity on how the HST rebate will be administered.”

In the highrise sector, condos continue to struggle with elevated existing inventory, a price floor and very low new product launches — only one new condo project has launched in 2026. In addition, eligibility requirements under the HST rebate program set start and completion timelines for new housing projects that are too tight for most new highrise condo projects to meet, which may also be affecting sales. Greater clarity on these parameters would help sustain the momentum seen since April.

The benchmark price for new condos in May was $1,029,489, remaining at an apparent price floor. The price for new single-family homes was $1,427,543, down 5.2 per cent over the last 12 months. These are gross prices and do not reflect any HST rebate, allowing for a like-for-like comparison with previous years. Purchasers who qualify for an HST rebate would receive additional savings.